Recent Posts

Is anyone having problems using the forum?  Just checking.

I've been kinda hanging low the past couple months... took a couple cool trips to Savannah, GA and Ohio.

My performance has been in-line with the market recently:
Last 12 months returns: S&P 500 (Dividends): +9.34% Michael Salvucci: +9.29%

Since May 3, 2005* returns: S&P 500 (Dividends): +5.90% Michael Salvucci: +40.16%

* date I became a value investor.

I'm still holding TZA... I averaged down once, and I still think the market will take another leg down, so I'm holding it.

EMC showed up on the hybrid report, and unfortunately I missed that one... it already ran up +10% within a week.

How's everyone else doing?

- Vooch

VIX is the most optimistic stock in the market right now. It should be considered a momentum stock and may also be considered a self-fullfilling prophecy because there is $38,671,605.44 in net call options on the winning side of this trade.

http://www.activevaluetrader.com/options/sfp.php - this is an EXPERIMENTAL report.

VIX is the S&P500 Volatility Index, which means the market thinks the volatility is going to rise a lot

One way for that to happen is for the market to go up, which is inline with my 3-day Holiday Theory, but against my TZA trade.  We shall see.

- Vooch

Over the July 4th weekend, there will be a meeting of the minds, when families across the USA get together to discuss stocks (among other things).

Usually, the market will see pent-up demand for buying, because of the 3-day weekend, but if stocks go down this upcoming Tuesday, that'll definately be a bad sign.

Today, I bought TZA because it showed up on the Hybrid report the way I want to see it.  However, this goes against my 3-day weekend theory, so I probably should have waited a couple days into next week before I bought it.  As always, time will tell.

On TZA, my exit target wil be about 8% from where I bought it, since the Hybrid report is a short-term tool from a toolbox I use.

- Vooch

Last week, I heard the total cost of this catastrophe is going to cost $2-$3 Trillion Dollars.  I believe it was a government source, but I cannot quote the source off-the-top-of-my-head.

Before the catastrophe, keep in mind, BP was only worth $200 Billion in Market Cap.

The options show more downside is going to occur:
http://www.activevaluetrader.com/options/chart.php?symbol=BP

DISCLAIMER:  Since the beginning of the catastrophe, I have not taken a position in BP (long, short, or via options).

BP is a powerful company, and I've often given thought if BP were to drag out the problem ad nauseum, or have enough power worldwide to push governments around. I imagine it's a combination of the two, so I'm sticking on the sidelines.

On a side note, my initial thoughts about BP simply giving up on the USA and say, "FU, it's your problem", doesn't seem to hold enough weight from a long-term strategic perspective.

- Vooch

AMLN showed up on one of our experimental reports tonight, that hasn't been placed on our website yet, but we thought you should know about it, so you can begin your due dilligence.

Here's a recent article, to get you started:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37975859?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

- Vooch

Sold SDS today at $36.34/share from $32.78 for +10.8% profit in 14 days.

Sold BRKB today at $80.52/share from $79.89 for +0.8% profit in 8 days.

Bought WMT at $48.67/share.

- Vooch

Sold some K at $54.36/share (made about +35%).

Bought SDS $32.78/share on 6/15 (new position)

Bought BRKB $79.89/share on 6/21 (new position) - they're going into one or more Russell indexes, so it might get a bounce just on that.  If not, I own a pretty safe stock.

- Vooch

Vooch sells SLV $18.71/share from $17.31/share (+8.1%) 28 days held

If you look at these charts:
http://www.activevaluetrader.com/options/chart.php?symbol=BP
you will notice 8 days ago, the options started going negative with BP.

Perhaps somebody in the U.S. Govt. knew they were going to sock BP with a $20 Billion penalty (ie. penalty as in, to secure cash in order to pay restitution) and still not be off-the-hook.  In fact, it looks like this is just the start of a much larger payout.

- Vooch

SLV bounced off the 200 day moving average on this chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SLV&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

If you've done your due diligence, and you're still interested, try to beat my $17.31 entry price if you can, or just enter wherever you feel appropriate.

- Vooch