Let\'s just \"Kick The Can\".... Afterall, it\'s Easy, Right?! Wrong!!!

I\'ll just chime in and say, \"kick the can\"...  since that\'s the general and predominant theme from what I\'ve been reading lately.  Heck, let\'s just \"kick the can\" a little further, and let someone else deal with the problem (that seems to be the current American mindset) later.

It\'s obvious, the dollar devaluation is also tied to the opposite...the U.S. stock market going up.  Basically, the U.S. Government is confiscating wealth from an unsuspecting public during this period.

To hold cash, means you hold death, here.

From what I\'ve seen, money is flowing into high-quality large caps in a big way - at too fast a pace, but every bubble goes way beyond expectations... we\'re just starting that one.

As for now, \"the can\" keeps getting \"kicked\" forward.  At some point, it\'ll hit a wall, and look for a big correction when it hits.  The can hasn\'t hit the wall yet, but we\'re watching for it.

I\'m about 90% long, 1% short, and 9% cash.

- Vooch

Wal-Mart (WMT)

With yesterday\'s news that Warren Buffett increased his position in Wal-Mart (WMT), I looked up the last 2 times I calculated Intrinsic Value for WMT:

4/12/09 $95.84/share

8/1/09 $117.47/share

These were my purchases across all accounts for 2009 for WMT:

8/3/09 $49.747537/share

8/5/09 $49.27/share (the big purchase)

8/6/09 $49.00/share

9/25/09 $49.725/share

Again, I think Buffett is paying less than 50 cents on the dollar (just like he did with BNI, recently).

- Vooch

The Geography of Jobs

Check out this cool movie... Press Play and watch.  Also, notice the effects of Hurricane Katrina:

http://tipstrategies.com/archive/geography-of-jobs/

- Vooch

HERE AT THE CROSSROADS

On June 5, 2009 the S&P500 was trading at 942 and I wrote an article about how we are 50 points away from being at The Crossroads.  The Crossroads is where we will either hit to top edge of the trading range and go down from here, thus continuing the Bear Market, or we will break out by advancing and end the Bear Market.

Here is some anecdotal evidence of a recovery:

LAS VEGAS REAL ESTATE DEMAND
Earlier this month, I read an article about Las Vegas real estate.  It stated 1 out of every 13 homes was foreclosed upon in Las Vegas last month.

One of my friends got a call from a guy wanting to buy 600 (yes, six hundred) homes in Las Vegas.  That is probably a $200-250 Million investment by some group of investors.

AUTO DEALERSHIP PACKED
This past weekend I was at the Honda dealership getting my car serviced.  I noticed a ton of people shopping that day, when the place used to be a ghost town.  I asked to talk to a sales guy, and I had to wait 20 minutes just to talk to one!  I guess it is the \"Cash for Clunkers\" program Congress passed.  Anyways, our cars were not eligible for the program.  The sales guy did say you can go to fueleconomy.gov to get stats for your car.  I have not gone over to that website yet.

GOLF SHOP PACKED
I got interested in golfing recently.  A couple weeks ago, I bought a set of clubs.  This weekend, I went into a different gold shop and the place was packed.  There was a line of people waiting to test out clubs.

CALL OPTION BIAS
On July 26, the amount of call options exceeded the put options by a 1.1:1.0 ratio.  This is the first time I\'ve seen calls outweigh puts.  I\'ve been looking at this stat since October 2008, and I think it\'s a very important gauge of the markets.

FUTURE EARNINGS ESTIMATES HIGHER THAN CURRENT YEAR
On Saturday, I looked at about 75 stocks and noticed several of them where the future earnings estimates exceed the current year.  This is the first time I\'ve seen so many in awhile.

BOND YIELD CURVE STILL UPWARD SLOPING
3 month 0.15%
6 month 0.24%
2 year 1.17%
3 year 1.68%
5 year 2.66%
10 year 3.63%
30 year 4.41%

An upward sloping yield curve is bullish.

OUR GOOGLE EXPIRIMENT REGARDING JOBS
job losses 45,878 (--)
job cuts 24,223 (--)
job layoffs 8,555 (--)
recession 166,128 (--)
depression 34,176 (-)
pricing in mild recession 481 (--)
pricing in severe recession 7129 (--)
pricing in mild depression 473 ( )
pricing in severe depression 2501 ( )
inflation 47,847 ( )
deflation 5,752 (-)

This tells us the job losses are over, and we should be concerned about inflation.

U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT FORECASTS FLAT
The Dec 2009 - Feb 2010 forecasts are flat for unemployment according to:  http://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm

Jun 2009 9.5
Jul 2009 9.9
Aug 2009 10.4
Sep 2009 10.7
Oct 2009 10.9
Nov 2009 11.1
Dec 2009 11.2
Jan 2010 11.2
Feb 2010 11.2

Here I may be premature because we don\'t see a reversal yet, but a flattening of the curve sure is promising.  Our Google experiment suggests forecasts.org is wrong and their numbers should be lower.

EXISTING MEDIAN HOME PRICE IMPROVING
Existing Median Home Prices are on an upward trend for 2009.  Here\'s the existing median home price for each month this year:

$170,300 January 2009
$165,400 February 2009
$175,200 March 2009
$169,800 April 2009
$170,000 May 2009
$181,800 June 2009

PERFORMANCE
Here\'s my performance since I became a Value Investor:
http://www.activevaluetrader.com/images/vooch-20090731.jpg

CONCLUSION
For months, I\'ve been sitting on 90% cash.  The time has come for me to reduce my cash concentration and shift towards 40% cash.  Today, I bought the following stocks:  AZN CVX ENDP FSLR GILD GOOG JNJ KO KR MBT MCD MOS PEP PG SYK WAG WMT XOM.  I\'m sitting on 70% cash.

Now, with the S&P500 sitting at 1001 (at the upper edge of the trading range), a quick move to 1050 should be the breakout signal I need to declare this Bear Market over.